Prospect System Rank – 30th (Previous Rank - 29th)
GM: Julien BriseBois Hired: September 2018
COACH: Jon Cooper Hired: March 2013
The Tampa Bay Lightning continues to embody the "run it back" philosophy, relying on a veteran core to remain competitive year after year. It's hard to argue with the results, as they are just two years removed from three consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearances and back-to-back championships. However, with aging veterans and little value sitting on the shelves, the end of the runway may be in sight.
Julien BriseBois has been notably averse to first-round picks, having selected in the first round only twice since his hiring in 2018. Unless future trades are made, that trend could continue into the 2025 NHL Entry Draft after bringing back a familiar face in Ryan McDonough for a top 10 protected first pick.
However, for the first time in what feels like a decade, perhaps we’ve finally seen a change in strategy.
In a surprising move, the Lightning acquired top prospect Conor Geekie (ranked 32nd by McKeen’s) from the Utah Hockey Club in exchange for 26-year-old Mikael Sergachev. This trade gives Tampa Bay their first top 50 McKeen’s ranked prospect in quite some time and may signal a shift towards replenishing their prospect pool—an unfamiliar prospect for Lightning fans.
Adding the likes of Geekie, who may even see games in the 2024-25 campaign, is a step in the right direction, but there is still a long road ahead.
Gage Goncalves, a 2020 second-round pick, has been developing steadily in Syracuse, coming off a strong season with 58 points in 69 games to finish just outside the top 10 in AHL scoring. At 23 years old, he’s likely to be given a longer leash after a brief stint in the 2023-24 season.
Isaac Howard (157th), the Lightnings’ only first-round draft pick in the last five years, remains a key part of their future, though he will continue to develop at the collegiate level with Michigan State. While there’s hope he could see NHL ice time as early as this spring, the team’s status as a perennial playoff contender raises questions about whether rushing him into the lineup is the best course of action.
The recent swap of Steven Stamkos for Jake Guentzel indicates that the Lightning will continue their push to remain relevant as long as players like Victor Hedman (33), Nikita Kucherov (31), Brayden Point (28) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (30) are in town.
Tampa Bay’s championship window is still wide open, but with little depth, and a lack of draft capital, they are treading in dangerous waters for the future.
Tampa Bay Lightning Top-15 Prospects
1. Conor Geekie
One of the big pieces acquired from Utah in the Mikhail Sergachev deal, Geekie immediately became Tampa’s best prospect. The big power pivot is such a difficult player to stop North/South, as he drives the middle lane with speed and advanced puck protection ability. The former 11th overall selection nearly broke the 100-point barrier in the WHL last season and is ready to take that next step as a pro. The big debate surrounding Geekie revolves around his upside as an NHL player. When his size and power advantage is neutralized, how effective will he be as an offensive player? Does he think the game at a high enough level to drive play and make those around him better at the NHL level? Geekie’s future could take a variety of different turns. Could he be a top six power center cut from the same cloth as the Tkachuk brothers? Or is he destined to be more of a bottom six contributor? Tampa Bay will learn a lot more about Geekie’s upside this year at the pro level.
2. Ethan Gauthier
Gauthier, the son of former NHL defender Denis Gauthier, and the 37th overall pick in last year’s draft, had another successful season in the QMJHL, this time with Drummondville after an offseason trade. The physically assertive forward plays a pro style game that revolves around being able to earn touches between the hash marks. He drives the net, forechecks hard, and has continued to round out his game as a two-way player. Gauthier also shoots the puck well and his goal scoring ability is the component of his offensive arsenal that likely translates the best to the pro level. To be an effective pro, Gauthier continues to work on his skating, working to become more explosive and agile. He’ll return to the QMJHL this season and should be one of the league’s top forwards as a 20-year-old. Depending on the development of his off puck play and skating, he could be NHL ready, sooner rather than later.
3. Isaac Howard
Howard, the team’s only first round selection in the last five years, had a terrific sophomore season after hitting the transfer portal the previous offseason. Howard shifted from Minnesota-Duluth to Michigan State, and it had a very positive impact on his development. He led the Spartans in scoring last year and also played a crucial role for the United States at the WJC’s, helping them capture gold. Howard was noticeably stronger on the puck last season, helping him take greater advantage of his strong skating ability to generate scoring chances. He’s a very dangerous player on the counterattack, and despite his low goal total at Michigan State, actually possesses high upside as a goal scorer because of his quick release. Howard will return to Michigan State this year as a junior and he should be considered a preseason candidate for the Hobey Baker. He might just have the highest upside of any player in Tampa’s system.
4. Niko Huuhtanen
Huuhtanen continued on the terrific development path that he started after a breakout season with WHL Everett in 2022. Two years ago, he was the rookie of the year in Liiga and this past year he led Jukurit in scoring. The big power forward signed late last season and finished his year in the AHL, giving him a taste of what to expect this coming year, his first as a pro in North America. Huuhtanen is a throwback power winger who plays a very heavy game. He’s a relentless physical player who is still learning how to walk the line in terms of discipline. However, he is most effective when he plays the power game, dominating the wall and the net front area. Huuhtanen is a prolific goal scorer, too, thanks to a very heavy release and one timer. His positive development curve has put him on a path to become a quality middle six option for the Lightning in the near future.
5. Gage Goncalves
It’s been a long road for Goncalves. The former WHL standout has now played three seasons in the AHL, improving in each of them. He led Syracuse in scoring by a significant margin this past season and finally earned a cup of coffee with the Lightning. The two-way pivot has proven to be a versatile pro. He plays an intelligent game at both ends, excelling on and off the puck. His attention to detail as a defensive player is likely going to be the thing that gets him into the NHL in a depth role before he carves out a larger one. As an offensive player, his vision and playmaking ability stand out most. He understands how to alter pace to manipulate defenses and is hard on pucks to help his line prolong offensive zone time. This year, Goncalves will need to pass through waivers in order to go to the AHL, so it seems likely that if he has a good camp, he will be given a bottom six role in Tampa Bay.
6. Max Crozier
The Lightning have to be ecstatic about what Crozier showed this past season after turning pro. Earlier last season he did not look out of place in Tampa Bay when the Lightning were having serious injury issues on the blueline. Closing out the year with Syracuse, Crozier was a near point per game defender in the AHL. Full of confidence, we saw the full scope of the impact that he can have on the game at both ends. The 6-foot-2 right shot defender does a lot of things well. He defends well thanks to an aggressive approach, a long reach, and good mobility. He takes away space from opposing forwards and defends tight spaces well thanks to his physical assertiveness. Crozier also makes a clean exit pass and has flashed an ability to quarterback the powerplay, with a strong ability to get shots through traffic. While Crozier might not have significant NHL upside, he looks like someone who can be a stable #4 or 5 defender for many years.
7. Declan Carlile
Carlile is about to be a third-year pro after a strong performance at Merrimack College and is a standout in the defensive end. He projects as a quality stay at home defender at the NHL level and he may be ready for an NHL roster spot as early as this season. He has the size. He has the reach. He is mobile. He brings physicality. He has an active stick but is also aggressive in taking away space. Carlile looks like he can help anchor a penalty killing unit in the NHL. As an offensive player, his heavy point shot helps to generate scoring chances or goals and he can make a good exit pass, but he is at his best when he keeps things simple. Much like Max Crozier, Carlile looks like a long time NHL defender for Tampa Bay, but probably tops out as a third pairing type.
8. Dylan Duke
On a Michigan team full of potential front end NHL players, Duke stood out consistently for all the right reasons this past season, finishing third in scoring and first in goals on the Wolverines. It was a very promising junior season for the diminutive pivot. Duke has always been a highly skilled playmaker who creates time and space for himself with his hands, but upgrades to his strength, off puck play, shot, and skating really upgraded his projection as a pro. Somewhat surprisingly, Duke decided to turn pro, signing with Tampa Bay at the end of the season. It might have been wise for him to return to Michigan to continue to upgrade his physical tools; he would have had a shot at being one of the better players in College Hockey this year. However, it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to the AHL level. While he may still be a bit of a long shot given his lack of high-end physical tools, his upside remains intriguing.
9. Jack Finley
The massive center took a nice step forward in his second pro season with Syracuse last year. Teams have to be patient with bigger forwards as they grow into their frame and Finley has been no different. He dominated down low at the WHL level before turning pro but had to continue to upgrade his strength and conditioning in order to do that at the AHL level. Behind the net is his office and he has very good vision coming off the wall and the cycle. Finley has also had to adjust to the pace of the pro game, especially as an only average skater. He’s likely still a bit away from making an impact in Tampa Bay, but the Lightning have to be hoping that he can continue to develop into an Adam Lowry kind of high end third line center in the future. The Lightning will be hoping that Finley can inch closer to the point per game mark with Syracuse this year.
10. Daniil Pylenkov
Pylenkov’s development has been steady since the Lightning drafted him in 2021 in his second last year of eligibility. Now 23 (turning 24 soon), Pylenkov has emerged as one of the top young defencemen in the KHL. He still has a year remaining on his KHL deal so he won’t be coming over this year, but after that? He could be an option for Tampa as a bottom pairing defender. Pylenkov is certainly not a flashy player, however he’s a very crafty one. He makes a clean exit. He is a great stick on-puck defender. He makes sound decisions with his reads with and without the puck. His NHL upside is likely limited, but the progression of his offensive game in the KHL suggests that his projection could continue to improve. Defensive depth never hurts and Tampa has built that up well.
11. Hagen Burrows
Last year’s winner of Minnesota’s Mr. Hockey Award, Burrows was a fourth-round pick of the Lightning in 2024. The big winger was excellent last season, splitting time between the USHL and high school hockey. Burrows plays a mature game, tough to separate from the puck and an excellent playmaker coming off the wall. There’s a definitive need for him to improve his skating and he’ll try to do that at the University of Denver this season.
12. Hugo Alnefelt
Expectations were pretty high for Alnefelt a few years ago when he made the jump from the SHL to the AHL in Tampa’s system. At the time, he was considered one of the top European goaltending prospects. Since then, his development has stagnated to a certain degree. He has the tools to be one, but consistency has remained an issue for him. He will compete for the back-up job this year, but still has another year of waiver eligibility remaining.
13. Jayson Shaugabay
One of the most skilled and creative players in Tampa’s system, Shaugabay opted to play a full season in the USHL last season before making the jump to the NCAA. This allowed the diminutive forward to continue to build strength so that he can take greater advantage of his offensive gifts. Shaugabay will now head to Minnesota-Duluth this year and will likely be given a good shot to play a key offensive role as a freshman.
14. Lucas Edmonds
After a strong rookie season in the AHL two years ago, last season was a step back for Edmonds. No question, he’s a talented playmaker. However, there’s a strong need for him to upgrade his physical tools still to be a more consistent pro. 2024/25 is going to be a critical season for his development. A qualifying offer is likely dependent on his performance and progress.
15. Gabriel Szturc
The Lightning have had some good success signing free agents out of the CHL and the team dipped into that pool again a few times last year. Czech pivot and former Kelowna Rocket captain Gabriel Szturc is one such player. He’s a competitive, two-way, playmaker who, ignoring the cliche, plays much larger than his size. He projects as a versatile bottom six forward for Tampa Bay.