C/W - #3, Djurgårdens IF J20
H/W: 6-foot-0, 154 pounds
Shoots: R
DOB: 11/05/2007
Sweden
When it was announced that Nilson would be moving from Örebro to Djurgårdens IF, it raised some eyebrows. While Djurgårdens is one of the best youth programs in Sweden, scouts were worried that he wouldn’t be able to shine on such a stacked team and that he’d likely get pushed down the lineup by other young talents. Eric, the son of former NHLer Marcus Nilson, would have been “the guy” in Orebro, playing 1st line center and getting the best opportunities on special teams. However, Nilson quickly silenced those concerns with a monster 1st half of the season, notching 28 points in 23 games before the international break and playing solid 200 ft hockey all the while. He even got into four HockeyAllsvenskan games and got his first professional point. Nilson established himself as a top draft eligible prospect in the region, setting himself up for a step forward after the international break.
Nilson stumbled out of the gate in the 2nd half of the season. The heightened level of play in the J20 Nationell Top 10 proved to be an adequate challenge, and also highlighted some concerns and immaturities with his game – as well as with his physique. Despite the relative lack of production since the new year, Nilson still plays the game the right way. With the J20 Nationell playoffs and the U18 WJC on the horizon, Nilson will have to prove the doubters wrong again. A strong performance in this final stretch of big games may be the boost his draft stock needs to cement himself as a 1st round talent. If not, he may slip down some draft boards – perhaps even some rounds at the draft.
If that happens, whoever drafts Nilson outside of the 1st will be getting an excellent prospect. He’s a natural center who already plays a refined two-way game. He’s an intense competitor on and off the puck. His offensive toolkit is rife with deception and lethality. He leans pass-first due to his vision and puck handling ability, but Nilson has one of the most underrated shots of the region. There may be some real risk with regard to his frame and physical strength (or lack thereof), but betting on his physical maturation is a good risk to take considering his bloodlines and young age for the draft. If all goes well and he puts on some muscle, Nilson has the upside to be a middle-6 center in the NHL one day. Someone who will contribute in all three-zones, distribute pucks on the powerplay, and be a contributor on the penalty kill. If he doesn’t, there’s no guarantee he sticks in the NHL as an everyday player. So, while there’s some risk, there’s also a sky-high reward to reap. I know I’d make that bet.
Skating
Nilson’s skating is definitely above average for his age and is the first of his many projectable tools. His quick feet match his drive, allowing him to win footraces to pucks and hustle back on defence. There’s a twitchiness to his stop-start, allowing him to seamlessly read and react to play and adapt to new obstacles in his path. He pushes the pace with the puck on his stick and can QB the rush very effectively. Thanks to his strong ability to read the ice and find skating lanes, Nilson has been one of Djurgården J20’s best forwards at entering the zone with possession and helping his team get set up for offence.
When set up, Nilson is adept at taking advantage of soft ice in dangerous areas by quickly cutting from the perimeter to the middle, rarely staying put in one place for too long. He’s not the most slippery player in tight, but Nilson can shake pressure with evasive changes in directions and deceptive cutbacks. He controls his speed comfortably from his edges and can move laterally without much fuss.
Despite his strong skating, Nilson can’t generate the separation speed with the puck on his stick like the elite skaters of the draft. He’s got some explosivity to his skating, but could stand to add some more quickness to make his skating a truly formidable tool, even at the NHL. However, Nilson will most likely still be on the speedier side of the spectrum as he climbs to higher levels.
Here we see Nilson (#3 Blue) carrying the puck in transition and gaining possession in the offensive zone. He effectively mixes in regular strides and inside cross-unders to accelerate from changes in direction through the neutral zone, before getting anchored on his edges for more control once he hits the offensive blueline.
Here’s another end-to-end carry from Nilson (#3 Blue), tracking down a puck through some traffic in the D-zone and quickly moving it up ice. He doesn’t have enough speed to get around the defender at the offensive blueline, so he chips it in deep and explodes after it.
An example of Nilson (#3 Blue) showing some good gear-switching by executing a cut-back once he gains the zone. He could have been quicker starting after stopping here, but it was a hard stop that effectively shook off his defender and opened up a lot of ice for him to survey his options.
Nilson (#3 white) curling off the wall and exploding into the slot for a great goal. If he can continue to nurture this explosiveness and utilize it consistently, then look out, world!
Nilson (#3 white) may be quick, but he’s not that quick – yet. Here we see him overestimate his straight-line speed thinking he could squeak by the defender who’s even to the puck. He gets a solid bump into the boards for his mistake.
Grade: 55
Shot
While it’s not what he’s known for, Nilson’s shot is actually a very solid tool in his offensive toolkit. Although he’s struggled to put up goals consistently, Nilson is getting some excellent looks, especially in tight. When you’re getting quality looks, they’ll start to go in eventually.
He gets decent velocity on his wrist shot and gets it on net consistently. He does a good job of mixing up his pre-shot movement to freeze or trick goalies. Due to his lack of strength, his shot doesn’t have as much zip as it could have at the moment. With a bit more physical maturation and upper body strength, Nilson’s shot could probably get some more velocity on his shot.
In addition, many of Nilson’s even strength shots are located low on the net with a very low success rate. He has a tough time lifting the puck up over the shoulders of the goalie and just under the crossbar consistently. While there could be some mechanical issues at play, he has shown the ability to shoot it high and found success doing so. Diversifying his options may be beneficial for his upside as a scorer, as it opens up more parts of the net to score on while simultaneously making it harder for goalies to predict where the shot will go.
A prime example of how most of Nilson’s (#3 white) goals have come this season. A takeaway near the offensive blueline along with a good shot from medium distance.
Nilson (#3 Blue), acting as the trailer on this offensive push by Djurgården, receives the puck with some runway and wires a good wrister low glove side and in.
How about this move? Nilson (#3 white) with some nasty stickwork after receiving the puck at the point, toedraging past the defender closing him out, protecting the puck from another defender wide, all before freezing the goalie with a lighting fast shot.
Nilson (#3 Blue) showing some good recognition, moving into space and showing that he can, in fact, lift the puck in tight when he wants to. In J20 competition this year, he’s shooting at a sub 7% clip on low shots (high volume) versus almost 20% on shots up high (low volume). There’s got to be a balance he can reach here, cause the numbers speak for themselves.
Here’s Nilson (#3 White) being set up with a one-timer pass, right in his wheelhouse, and he can’t get anything on it. His form looked very suspicious on that attempt. Surely as he starts to mature physically, he’ll add some strength to his shot, but he’s gotta figure out how to properly take some OTs as well.
Grade: 52.5
Skill
Nilson’s craftiness and deception on-puck play has allowed him to drive excellent transition play and create countless quality scoring chances for his team all season long. His passing vision is borderline elite. He can hit long passes, either up ice or across, with staggering consistency. He can open up skating and passing lanes though his handles and push defenders back on their heels. In addition to controlling the play well with time and space, Nilson is also very good at controlling play along the wall and behind the net. He’s got quick hands in tight and a sophisticated delay game. He could be better at deceiving defenders and masking his intent with the puck, cause defenders don’t always bite on his moves.
If there is one criticism about Nilson’s skill is that he has a tendency to live on the perimeter. He used to attack the middle in the early months of the season, but that’s become a rarity since the J20 Top 10 started. There isn’t anything necessarily wrong with that, but it does limit the danger and creativity one can have as a puck carrier and playmaker. If he could learn to attack the inside and/or the middle of the slot more consistently, he could absolutely take over shifts and would push his offensive upside much higher.
Here’s a great example of how Nilson (#3 Blue) is able to control play and manage the puck from the perimeter – his usual schtick.
Here’s Nilson (#3 White) controlling play from behind the net. He fires a pass to the slot, but it doesn’t work out. Still, the instincts are good.
Nilson (#3 Blue) showing off some nifty handles and dancing around sticks. He is able to shake pressure once he gains the blueline and fires a great cross ice pass to a wide-open teammate, who then sets up a goal. As good as it gets for a 2nd assist.
Here’s Nilson (#3 White) challenging a defender 1 on 1 and beating him, but not the goalie. He uses that nifty through-the-legs move to gain a step to the inside and drives the net.
This clip is from October, but this is the kind of thing scouts would love to see more of from Nilson (#3 White). He builds speed through the neutral zone, does a series of rapid stickhandles, all while attacking the net, leading to some grade A scoring chances for his line.
Grade: 55
Smarts
Without question, Nilson has high-end hockey sense. He’s played wing a couple times, mostly in his stints at the pro level, but his game fits the bill of a natural center. Nilson is able to utilize all the tools in his toolbox effectively to play the game he wants to play thanks to his processing speed. Players who can think the game as quickly as they can play it, especially ones who are as process oriented as Nilson, typically see their games translate very well to higher levels.
His two-way game has been excellent since his DY-1 and has only improved since then. You can’t get scored on if your opponent never has the puck – this seems to be a philosophy that Nilson subscribes to. He has a fantastic ability to anticipate play. He’s seemingly always in the right place at the right time, especially while defending the neutral zone. His transition defence might be among the best in the class. He’s got a great stick, too, which lets him steal the puck and counter attack before his opponents can recover.
As mentioned previously, Nilson is an intense competitor. He’s confident in his abilities and has no problem challenging one or more opponents with the puck on his stick. This does lead to some moments where he bites off more than he can chew. This has been more noticeable during the 2nd half of the season. He has a tendency to over-handle or skate into too much pressure without any support. However, that isn’t too concerning at this point in his development. Can’t learn what does or doesn’t work unless you try – provided that you do, in fact, learn.
Here is Nilson (#3 White) surveying the Frölunda breakout attempt and finding the perfect moment to strike. If he wasn’t off-balance, that could have easily been a goal.
A great stretch pass from Nilson (#3 White) after covering for his D in the defensive zone to set up a goal. Tremendous awareness and vision to know there was a teammate up there and to find him with that D-splitting pass.
Perhaps not a very traditional clip, but this is a crazy play. Nilson (#3 Blue) picks up the puck along the wall in the neutral zone and starts towards the offensive zone. He’s anchored on his edges, stickhandling towards the middle while his teammate is barreling towards the net. Nilson sees this and, while he’s is leading his man towards the middle, his teammate runs into his defender, pushing him towards the net and inadvertently removes the remaining two defenders from play for the most absurd pick of all time. Nilson takes advantage and scores. This looked intentional, and highlights the tactical mind of Nilson on the puck.
Not the cleanest play, but Nilson (#3 White) further shows off his tactical playmaking ability with a good ol’ give & go. Notice how he sees the play developing while almost everyone has their back turned to him and gets a scoring chance from it.
n case that last clip seemed flukey, here’s another example of Nilson (#3 Blue) working the give & go in spite of some shoddy camerawork.
When you’re as talented as Nilson (#3 white) is with the puck, you’re bound to overestimate your abilities and bite off more than you can chew. He tries stickhandling across the offensive blueline and gaining the zone, but there’s a sea of green there to meet him. He turns it over and play goes the other way.
Grade: 55
Physicality/Compete
Here’s where things get interesting with Nilson. He’s a fierce competitor with a good motor. He’s a very hard worker off the puck. He’s got excellent physical skills and habits, letting him throw hits and hunt pucks down low without fear.
The main concern right now is his lack of physical strength and his teenage frame. It’s holding him back from becoming the complete player he has flashed the potential of becoming. He can’t compete at the pro level if he gets removed from play every time he gets into a puck battle, and he can’t dominate the junior levels if he can’t fight through strong contact and attack the inside.
Thankfully, there are reasons for optimism. He has a May birthday, putting him among the younger players in the draft. In addition, his father, former NHLer Marcus Nilson, grew to be 6-foot-2, 200 pounds in his playing days. While there is no guarantee it’ll happen, there is an expectation that Eric can get close to that. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that his upside is going to be directly related to how much weight he is able to put on. If he never develops physically, Nilson could still forge a path to the NHL, but his role and impact will be very reduced – even after several years of development. That said, even the most optimistic observers of Nilson will admit that he’ll need a lot of seasoning in Sweden before he’s ready to make the jump across the pond.
Grade: 55
Love the compete here from Nilson (#3 Blue). He makes a play from behind the net to the slot that doesn’t work out, but he doesn’t give up on the play. He harangues the defenceman with the puck and wrests it free, keeping possession alive and eventually leading to a goal.
Some more compete here from Nilson (#3 Blue) on the PK as he blocks a shot, dumps his man, then gets after the puck all the way down in the other end to pressure the opposing power play.
Here’s some smart physicality from Nilson (#3 Blue) as he dumps the puck carrier on the forecheck. The puck squirts out in front of the net right on the stick of his teammate, but somehow the puck stays out. If he can just gone stick to puck rather than eliminating his man from the play, his team probably doesn’t get that scoring chance.
Due to his slight frame, even soft nudges can have an impact on Nilson (#3 white). After the initial contact along the wall, he gets pinned down and effectively removed from play. If he can’t put on enough weight, this is something that will be a problem as he ascends to higher levels.
Now, despite that last clip and the concerns about his physical strength, Nilson (#42 Blue) has the will to be an absolute dog on a bone, even at the pro level. Despite the strength disadvantage, he throws himself into the fray and does what he can to pin his opponent to the boards. There should be no concerns about his compete whatsoever.
OFP: 54.625
A note on the 20-80 scale used above. We look at five attributes (skating, shooting, puck skills, hockey IQ and physicality) for skaters and six for goalies (athleticism/quickness, compete/temperament, vision/play reading, technique/style, rebound control and puck handling). Each individual attribute is graded along the 20-80 scales, which includes half-grades. The idea is that a projection of 50 in a given attribute meant that our observer believed that the player could get to roughly NHL average at that attribute at maturity.