2025 NHL Draft Eligible
Position: D, Shoots: L
H/W: 6’2”, 183lbs
Date of Birth: 2007-09-05
Heading into the 2025 NHL Draft season, there was little debate as to who the top defensive prospect for the draft was; we and many others believed it to be Schaefer. While his rookie (U17) year in the OHL wasn’t as dominant as expected, he shined on the international stage, capturing gold for Canada at the U17’s and U18’s (as an underager). Then, in the summer, he helped cement that status further with a dominant Hlinka/Gretzky Cup for Canada, again capturing gold. In addition to that, Schaefer upped his play in the OHL with Erie this year, establishing himself as one of the league’s premier defenders. Taking all of that into consideration, Schaefer has now put his name in the ring to challenge James Hagens to be the first overall pick in 2025. In fact, we believe him to be the top player available this year, as he now finds himself at the top of our rankings.
The reality is that Schaefer’s U17 year in the OHL should not be held against him. These were turbulent times for him as he dealt with the loss of his mother. Additionally, Schaefer was not physically ready to be dominant in the way that he was capable of, considering his late September birthday. In fact, he’s only a few weeks away from being 2026 eligible.
The other reality is that his 2024/25 season hasn’t been without turmoil either, albeit of a different kind. He got a late start to the year after contracting mono following the Hlinka/Gretzky. Fortunately, his return to the OHL was not hampered by post illness recovery, as is often the case for mono as players take time getting their strength back. Then, unfortunately, his season took a turn for the worse at this year’s World Juniors. Well on his way to having a breakthrough performance for Canada in Ottawa, Schaefer fractured his collarbone after colliding with the net in the team’s disappointing loss to Latvia. This will keep Schaefer out for the near majority of the rest of his draft season. That means we, as the scouting organization, will need to make a call on him based on about a half a year of play.
In all honesty, we feel pretty confident in doing just that. This year, Schaefer transformed himself into a fully dominant two-way defenseman. The way he captained Canada at the Hlinka/Gretzky. The way he dominated the World Juniors as a double underager before getting injured. It all points to him projecting as a franchise leading, number one defender who can play in all situations. Additionally, with his tremendous work ethic and leadership capabilities, he should be an eventual captain for whatever team selects him.
The key to Schaefer’s success, now and in the future, is the combination of his elite mobility and his elite processing ability. Not only can he make skilled plays at a blistering pace, but he consistently makes the right decisions at that same pace. He’s the prototype of the modern-day NHL defender, who rarely gets hemmed in his own end, who consistently leads a successful breakout, who can excel as a playmaker inside the offensive zone, and who can also match up against the opponent’s best and shut them down. Truthfully, this is a defenseman with no flaws and for that reason, Schaefer is a budding star.
Skating
As mentioned, Schaefer’s sensational mobility is one of the main keys to his tremendous play and upside. He’s both explosive and graceful, giving him free range of motion across all four planes. He can rocket up the ice to lead the breakout, leaving forecheckers in their dust thanks to his powerful strides. This speed burst also comes in handy when it comes to recovering defensively, allowing Schaefer to be aggressive offensively without sacrificing his defensive responsibilities. Explosive on his edges, Schaefer also rarely gets beat to a loose puck, meaning that he rarely gets hemmed in his own end at the junior level.
The dynamic quality of his four-way movement also makes Schaefer so dangerous in the offensive end. He routinely creates shooting and passing lanes by pushing off of his edges, and similar to someone like Cale Makar, Schaefer can actually build speed quickly off East/West directional changes. This helps him escape pressure off the point and work to the middle, drawing extra attention to himself, while opening up exploitable passing lanes.
Strong lateral and backwards mobility also allow Schaefer to have tremendous gap control. Last year, his gaps were too large and attacking forwards were exploiting this at times. This year, he’s worked to close those gaps and have a more active stick; he’s now more consistently ahead of the action and able to survey the unfolding play around him. Additionally, Schaefer’s transitions are seamless, allowing him to retrieve dump-ins and take excellent routes to pucks, which in turn creates breakout opportunities for his team.
A good look at Schaefer’s quick strike ability as he builds speed quickly out of the pivot and breaks through the neutral zone for the scoring chance.
Another good look at Schaefer’s ability to build speed quickly, this time allowing him to escape pressure along the wall to get to the middle for the goal against Switzerland at the Hlinka/Gretzky.
Look at how quickly Schaefer transitions to his forward stride, after initially attacking laterally because he assumed the Finnish player would secure possession. He gets to the puck first, then cuts off the Finnish player's hands, without breaking stride, allowing him runway behind the net. If we’re going to nitpick, this play unfolds almost too fast for Schaefer, who has to rim the puck up the boards to avoid the Finnish forechecker that he does not initially see. This leads to a turnover and a penalty against his teammate. However, this was the safe play at that exact moment, as the reverse swing would have been too risky given the placement of the Finnish player that he just beat behind the net.
A quick cut by Schaefer draws a penalty, but he stays with the play and sets up the goal.
The play that ended Schaefer’s World Juniors. But just look at his ability to build speed and how efficient his stride is.
Grade: 65
Shot
Schaefer’s shot/shooting ability is truly the only average area of his game at this time. He’s not a huge triggerman like a Shea Weber or Sergei Gonchar. He’s terrific at getting shots through traffic and he’s aggressive in jumping up in the rush to get looks, however his shot is not his biggest weapon.
He prefers to use a quick wrister or snapshot from the point, focusing on accuracy and release, rather than velocity. He will have a longer load on his wrist shot when he’s given time and space in the slot or from the flanks, and that gives him the velocity to beat goaltenders cleanly. However, he rarely opts for the big slap shot and the one timer is rarely utilized too.
That said, given how intelligent he is at picking his spots, he should still score his fair share of goals in the NHL.
Schaefer does a great job getting this puck through traffic, allowing for the tip in on the game tying goal.
Another quick shot from the point through traffic. This generates a second chance opportunity and goal.
Again, a quick shot from the point under pressure finds its way through and into the back of the net.
Such an intelligent play by Schaefer here as he shoots for the pads intentionally to create a rebound for Pano Fimis to deposit.
Not too often do you see Schaefer attempt to one-time pucks and this could be why.
Grade: 50
Skills
At first glance, Schaefer’s overall puck skill likely isn’t going to wow you. He’s not quite as “flashy” as someone like Montreal’s Lane Hutson, who routinely creates time and space for himself with how deft his hands are and how creative he is. However, Schaefer’s equally as effective as an offensive player because of how his hands work in sync with his feet. He routinely escapes pressure with quick moves to the outside or with a sharp directional change, maintaining complete control through the process. He rarely over skates the puck, and considering how quick he is, that is impressive.
As a passer, Schaefer excels. His exits and stretch passes rarely miss the mark, even under pressure. When he’s on the attack, he shows creativity as a playmaker, often threading saucer passes through traffic to help him miss sticks. There are times at the junior level where his passes are not converted simply because of the velocity he puts on them, not because they are off the mark. Those sort of timing plays will be converted at a much higher rate at the NHL level and that has to be exciting for his offensive upside.
One of the plays in the year so far in the OHL. Schaefer sets up a beautiful goal.
Could have had this clip in skating too, but it shows how smooth his hands are, working perfectly in sync with his feet. He beats multiple defenders on his way to scoring at the Hlinka/Gretzky versus Switzerland.
This play from the Hlinka/Gretzky is a great example of how Schaefer likes to play and how effective he can be playing so aggressively. He rims the puck up the board and heads up ice, assuming that his teammate can make a play off the wall to start the breakout. However, a turnover occurs, forcing Schaefer to double back. But, then once possession is secured again, he’s on the attack and sets up a beautiful goal for Ben Kindel.
Such a strong breakout by Schaefer. Notice how he drives the middle, something he does with consistency. But it’s the puck control here that truly impresses as Schaefer easily corrals the saucer without breaking stride and gets a look in tight.
Schaefer is so dynamic when he’s attacking. Chip and chase, then an inside out move to nearly set up a goal.
Definitely a set play off this defensive zone faceoff. Schaefer executes the perfect lob pass to seal the victory into the empty net.
Schaefer has secured his share of breakaways this year by surprising opposing defenders by how quickly he can get down the ice without the puck. Here is one such play. A skilled finish secures the goal.
Grade: 55
Smarts
Often high scoring defenders who play aggressively like Schaefer can be a defensive liability. It’s the classic trade off. You live with the defensive miscues and the turnovers because goals are being created for your team. The appeal with Schaefer is that he’s not a high risk, high reward type. He’s a low risk, high reward type. He is so good at picking his spots on when to be aggressive and when to take liberties with the puck. He’s perfectly content to play the puck into space at times, at either end. He understands that not every play has to be creative or with the intent of directly creating offense. Sometimes, the right play is simply moving the puck to open space to allow his teammates to work to maintain possession or work to start the breakout.
But when he is given that open space, even a glimmer of daylight, look out. Schaefer will exploit it and be on the attack.
Without the puck, Schaefer’s high intelligence level is equally visible and obvious. He’s almost always in the right spot defensively and consistently disrupts passing lanes with an active stick to create turnovers. As mentioned, he picks his spots well to be creative with the puck in the defensive end. He can escape the forecheck with his feet or with a heads-up pass, but when the odds are stacked against him and time/space is taken away, he’s perfectly fine with chipping pucks out to make the higher percentage play. In those instances, he almost always seems to get another crack at a successful exit and converts. That points to his high confidence level too. He has that belief that when he is on the ice, his team has the advantage.
If there is a weak spot here, it’s that defensively there is a need for him to be more assertive when defending in transition. His gap control has improved a lot over last year, as mentioned, but he can still leave too much space, relying on his stick exclusively to be disruptive.
This is such an intelligent play at the point, while running the powerplay. The full pivot takes the Slovak player out of the play, opening up the cross-ice seam to set up this goal.
What a pass, as Schaefer finds McKenna backdoor, cross ice.
So many things to love about this play by Schaefer. Firstly, the patience to hold off the forechecker and the ability to start the breakout. Secondly, how he drives the middle lane (again), earning a good scoring chance.
Schaefer calmly finds the puck and initiates the breakout under pressure. Then, notice (again) how he drives the middle lane, taking an opposing defender out of the play in the process.
Another creative play by Schaefer to initiate the breakout. He uses the self-pass, allowing him to build speed and escape the forecheck.
A rare occurrence of Schaefer nearly being beaten by an attacking forward, but he stays with him and his active stick negates the play, allowing him to fire the puck down the ice for the empty net goal.
A glimpse into the mind of Schaefer, who has such a clear understanding of spacing as he helps initiate a clean breakout. Notice how well he times his cut from the wall to create a passing lane out of the two man forecheck of Switzerland. Then it’s off to the races, where he drives the middle lane to open space, a habit he consistently exhibits.
Schaefer has great anticipation defensively and he’s learned to be more aggressive without the puck in the neutral zone, cutting off breakout attempts.
As mentioned, there’s still room for Schaefer to be more assertive when defending in transition. He leaves too big of a gap and then times his lunge at the puck poorly, leaving the middle lane exposed on this two on one.
Grade: 65
Physicality/Compete
This is the area of Schaefer’s game that has grown the most this year, likely due to improved conditioning (given his late birth date), and an increased confidence level. That’s not to say that he was missing the will last year; his compete level has never been questioned. It’s that he lacked the strength to consistently win battles in higher traffic areas. He was struggling to clear the net front, in particular.
This year not only is he excelling defensively and physically, but he has also found another level as a competitor. He blocks shots at every opportunity. He’s laying opposing attackers out in the corners and in open ice. He’s stepping up early on puck carriers, denying entry by taking the fight to the neutral zone. He’s jousting for position near the crease and finding success tying up even larger opposing forwards. He’s even getting involved in extracurricular activities, post whistle, showcasing a newfound confidence as an on-ice pest. Yet, he’s doing all of this, while remaining disciplined.
The question is, will Schaefer be as successful physically at the next level? I’d argue that given his late birthday, there’s room for him to improve the physical side of his game even more. There’s still a need to be even more assertive when defending the rush. There’s still a need to get stronger to win those 50/50 battles along the wall when his skating doesn’t give him an advantage. However, when he’s playing in the pros at 6’2 and over 200lbs, I have no reservations about him lacking the confidence to play a physically intense brand of hockey.
Check out this collection of blocks from the gold medal game at the summer’s Hlinka/Gretzky Cup. This is a determined young man who would do anything to help his team win.
Here’s Schaefer on the forecheck during Canada’s win over Finland at the WJC’s. He was consistently physical during his limited time at the event.
Schaefer will unquestionably need to get better below the goal line before he takes the next step to the NHL level. Here Noel Nordh, a big, physical winger, wins a battle for the puck easily and it leads to a goal against.
Another weak defensive play, this at the net front. He just needs to get stronger to not allow the Saginaw player to get inside leverage on him.
This is more like it. And we’re seeing him clear the net and be a tougher presence there more consistently.
A rare poor defensive play by Schaefer stemming from a lack of assertiveness and a poor route. He should have kept his feet moving and cut off Serlin, or attacked him aggressively in the neutral zone, knowing that his defensive partner had coverage. Instead, he gets beat to the outside and the result is a goal. It should be noted that his partner provides almost zero support too.
Here we see a much more assertive, physical play by Schaefer. Is it interference or just well timed? Debatable. But it’s a great defensive play.
Another great and assertive defensive play by Schaefer. Take the angle, eliminate physically, and start the breakout quickly with a backhand saucer.
Grade: 52.5
OFP: 59
A note on the 20-80 scale used above. We look at five attributes (skating, shooting, puck skills, hockey IQ and physicality) for skaters and six for goalies (athleticism/quickness, compete/temperament, vision/play reading, technique/style, rebound control and puck handling). Each individual attribute is graded along the 20-80 scales, which includes half-grades. The idea is that a projection of 50 in a given attribute meant that our observer believed that the player could get to roughly NHL average at that attribute at maturity.