When it’s time to draft or auction your fantasy hockey squad, the primary focus should be on finding value. That is a relative term and when drafting blue-chippers in the first round, there is not as much excess value to be found.
Teams most definitely need Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak and the like, but the value they provide is less likely to exceed expectations than if you happen to hit on a player in the middle rounds who suddenly becomes a first-rate scoring winger.
Think of the value provided by the likes of Sam Reinhart and Zach Hyman last season. They were very good and productive players already, but Reinhart surpassed his previous career high in goals by 24, Hyman surpassed his by 18.
The objective is to find players who will exceed expectations and sometimes that process can be assisted by expectations being lowered for whatever reason.
Where does one look to find fantasy all-stars?
Good Health
Players who miss time with injuries get lost in the shuffle. If they are chronically injured, then it might be a reach to expect them to suddenly play a full season, but hockey is a physical game, and injuries happen. If it lowers expectations for a player, that just might open a window for that player to surpass those expectations.
New Opportunities
Production is the objective when seeking players and a crucial factor to consider are the opportunities being offered to the player. Are they playing on the first line? Getting first-unit power play time? Those are ideal situations. But the player who moves from a checking role to a role in the top six has greater potential value. Players who go from 12 minutes per game to 15 should be expected to score more. Same goes for the players who move from 15 to 18 minutes per game. More ice time provides more opportunity for more production.
Taking it to a New Level
When it comes to young players, especially, there is a career progression that is to be expected. It is not uniform but as these players are ascending through their careers, catching them before a breakthrough season is a great way to find excess value. Hitting on Evan Bouchard before he broke through for 82 points last season, after scoring 40 the year before, provides massive value.
Statistical Track Record Matters
When seeking players who will provide more value, don’t shy away from players who have proven their level of play, but maybe ran into a down season. Maybe it was low percentages or injuries or the wrong linemates or a bad coach; in any case, if the player has been productive in the past, it’s easier to give them the benefit of the doubt when faced with some statistical complications.
Last season’s best hits on the Fantasy All-Stars included Bouchard, Lucas Raymond, Yegor Sharangovich, Pavel Zacha, Jonathan Drouin, and Gustav Forsling.
This year, in a fit of stubbornness, I have included three players that were on last year’s Fantasy All-Star team that didn’t quite pan out. This is going to be their year!
FANTASY ALL-STARS
FORWARDS
Tomas Hertl, C, Vegas
Playing a big role on the 2023-2024 San Jose Sharks was not a great situation for Hertl, who also missed a couple of months with a knee injury. He finished the season with 38 points in 54 games, then added just one point in seven playoff games, so this was not a strong showing from Hertl, but that’s precisely why he offers potential value going into the 2024-2025 season. Hertl’s on-ice shooting percentage, playing with overmatched linemates in San Jose for most of the season, was 6.5 percent, the second-lowest mark of his career. Hertl should be healthier as he gets further away from last season’s knee surgery and he will be skating with a much better team in Vegas, which should mean an upgrade both in five-on-five linemates and during his time on the top power play unit.
Timo Meier, RW, New Jersey
When the Devils acquired Meier from the Sharks in 2022-2023, he didn’t really hit his stride for the rest of that season, and for more than half of last season. He finally started to get going in late February last season and, in the last 26 games, Meier had 18 goals and 30 points with 3.50 shots on goal per game down the stretch. Meier’s overall production (28 goals and 52 points in 69 games) was solid enough, but his finish to the campaign showed that he still has the capability to be far more than that.
Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Edmonton
Returning to action following back surgery, Arvidsson had six goals and 15 points with 59 shots on goal in 18 games for the Kings. A five-time 20-goal scorer who is a consistent shot generator, Arvidsson signed in Edmonton as a free agent and is staring at an opportunity to play in the Oilers’ top six, which should mean a chance to play alongside Leon Draisaitl and the experience of playing a key role in Edmonton’s attack after spending his career with more buttoned-down teams in Nashville and Los Angeles could cause some culture shock, but it should also bring Arvidsson even more scoring opportunities.
Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, Montreal
The first pick in the 2022 Draft, Slafkovsky did not do much as a rookie and started slowly in his second season. He then got a chance to skate alongside Nick Suzuki on Montreal’s top line and things started to fall into place. In his last 40 games, Slafkovsky contributed 16 goals and 35 points, this after he scored four goals and 15 points in his first 42 games, and the 20-year-old power forward started to show that he could be a consistent scoring threat. Now, it’s time for him to do it for a full season.
Shane Pinto, C, Ottawa
Suspended for the first 41 games last season for a violation of the league’s gambling policy, Pinto produced a respectable nine goals and 27 points in 41 games after returning to action. However, he scored on just 8.2 percent of his shots on goal and his on-ice shooting percentage was 7.5 percent, which is on the low side as well. The Sens controlled 56.4 percent of expected goals with Pinto on the ice, the best mark on the team, so he should be given ample opportunity to build on last season’s strong finish, and maybe have the percentages tilt a little bit more in his direction.
Logan Cooley, C, Utah
The third pick in the 2022 Draft, Cooley showed promise during his rookie season in 2023-2024 and finished the season in style with nine goals and 14 points in his last 16 games. He plays at high speed and as his season progressed, Cooley started to reap the rewards of generating shots more consistently and there is still room for improvement in that aspect of the game. With increasing confidence, he will be able to generate offense and if Cooley finds his way to the top line in Utah, then his production could explode in his second season.
Tom Wilson, RW, Washington
A player whose fantasy hockey value could even exceed his real hockey value, Wilson offers a rare combination of physical play and the ability to put the puck in the net. He has had eight seasons with at least 200 hits and three 20-goal seasons. Last year, Wilson finished with 18 goals despite scoring on just 10.7 percent of his shots, his lowest rate since 2016-2017. He also had a team-low on-ice shooting percentage of 5.5 percent, the first time since 2014-2015 that he finished under 8.0 percent. Wilson should skate on the Capitals’ top line and with some positive regression in his percentages, should see a clear increase in his value this season.
Taylor Hall, LW, Chicago
Hall only played 10 games last season and is a 32-year-old winger coming off a torn ACL. That lowers expectations greatly, so it leaves room for Hall to surpass those expectations, potentially by a lot. He had a 61-point season for Boston in 2021-2022 and if he gets the opportunity to skate with Connor Bedard on Chicago’s top line, there is a path to Hall scoring like that again. While Hall has rarely been a great finisher, he consistently drives play and creates scoring chances, so Hall lining up with a finisher like Bedard could work well for both players.
William Eklund, LW, San Jose
The Sharks have been making moves to improve and that ought to bode well for Eklund, a young winger who had 15 points in his last 14 games, on his way to 45 points in his first full NHL season. That is barely scratching the surface, because Eklund’s production should continue to climb, and he has the speed and skill to pick up where he left off last season. While he will benefit from a stronger supporting cast in San Jose, the Sharks are hardly going to be over-valued after their miserable 2023-2024 season.
Matthew Knies, LW, Toronto
It is not as though Toronto Maple Leafs players tend to be underrated, but Knies is coming off a rookie season in which he managed 35 points in 80 games. He had ups and downs in his first year as a pro, but he established that he could play a physical game, recording 169 hits plus 23 hits in seven playoff games against Boston. Knies should get a look alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on Toronto’s top line, and that trip controlled nearly 67 percent of goals during five-on-five play when they were on the ice last season. That should put Knies in position for even greater offensive production this season.
Marco Rossi, C, Minnesota
The Wild centre finished second among rookies with 21 goals and fifth with 40 points. His 33 five-on-five points tied fellow Wild centre Joel Eriksson-Ek. The key for Rossi is whether he can secure regular playing time beside Kirill Kaprizov on the Wild’s top line. When they played together last season, Rossi had a five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of 12.1 percent, which was substantially higher than his overall five-on-five mark of 8.1 percent. Sometimes, it’s worth finding a player who can ride the coattails of a great linemate, and Rossi could be that player.
Andre Burakovsky, RW, Seattle
After scoring just 16 points in 49 games last season, Burakovsky should be available late in all formats but there are some reasons to be optimistic that he can bounce back. One reason is that he should score on more than 7.6 percent of his shots on goal, as he did last season. Across his previous nine seasons, Burakovsky had a shooting percentage of 14.4 percent. Compounding that trouble is that Burakovsky had an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.1 percent. His previous low in a season was 8.6 percent, so Burakovsky is one of the leading candidates to experience positive statistical regression this season.
DEFENSE
Mikhail Sergachev, D, Utah
A broken leg ruined Sergachev’s 2023-2024 season, and he finished with 19 points in 34 games for Tampa Bay after breaking through for a career-high 64 points the season before. Now that he has been traded to Utah, Sergachev should have a clearer path to first-unit power play time, where he will compete with Sean Durzi as opposed to Victor Hedman. If Sergachev is playing big minutes, as usual, there is a very good chance that he will exceed 40 points for the second time in his career.
Aaron Ekblad, D, Florida
In the two seasons before last, Ekblad had recorded a total of 39 power play points, so he is quite familiar with the role of quarterbacking the Panthers power play. With the Panthers losing Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to free agency, that opportunity could be back on the table for Ekblad, who had recorded more than half-a-point per game in four straight seasons before taking a step back last season following offseason shoulder surgery. The opportunity is substantially better than what typically awaits a defender who had 18 points in 51 games in 2023-2024.
Brock Faber, D, Minnesota
Expectations are already going to be relatively high for the Calder Trophy runner-up, but his star is still rising in Minnesota. Faber tied for second among rookies with 47 points last season, playing nearly 25 minutes per game. As a second-year player who is expected to handle the point on the Wild power play, Faber should continue to produce offensively, and since he is on his career ascent, there is some variability in just how high that offensive production could get. On top of his points and power play points, Faber also blocked 150 shots last season, so he makes a well-rounded contribution.
Bowen Byram, D, Buffalo
Acquired last season from the Colorado Avalanche in a trade for Casey Mittelstadt, Byram saw his ice time increase by a couple of minutes per game in Buffalo and he finished with career highs of 11 goals and 29 points. While he is not going to supplant Rasmus Dahlin on the Sabres’ top power play unit, Byram should have excellent opportunities otherwise and that should put him in position to score even more. His 28 even strength points last season had him tied for 34th in the league, so Byram ought to be ready to set a new career high in points in his first full season with the Sabres.
Mattias Ekholm, D, Edmonton
It is not like Ekholm is unknown. He played a huge role on the team that lost in the Stanley Cup Final, but he is more than merely a defensive conscience for Evan Bouchard. Ekholm set career highs with 11 goals and 45 points last season, with 41 of those points coming at even strength. He averaged 2.24 shots on goal per game, the third time in his career that he surpassed 2.20 shots per game and recorded a career-high 136 hits. He will continue to play a prominent role for the Oilers and last season that meant Connor McDavid recording 18 points on Ekholm’s 45 total points in 2023-2024.
Cam York, D, Philadelphia
There is risk involved in taking York, who managed just six power play points last season, but he also looks like the best candidate to play the point on Philadelphia’s power play this season. The Flyers’ power play was a disaster last season scoring a league-worst 4.35 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage, so if there is any improvement there (league average was 7.64), then York could reap some of those rewards. There is some risk, either that someone else takes over those minutes or that the Flyers remain terrible on the power play, but York still offers upside.
GOAL
Jacob Markstrom, G, New Jersey
While Markstrom is not an unknown quantity by any means, he has an excellent chance to exceed his early rankings. He had an excellent season even though the Calgary Flames did not have a strong season. Markstrom joins a Devils team coming off a down season, but they have the talent to put a strong team in front of Markstrom. The Devils were an above average team aside from goaltending last season, then they added defencemen Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon, so Markstrom is going to be in position to deliver a standout season.
Joseph Woll, G, Toronto
The 26-year-old Maple Leafs goaltender has played a grand total of 36 games in the NHL, but he has a .912 save percentage in those games, which is certainly good enough to get a longer look. He was in fine form when he got hurt last season and struggled a bit upon returning, but he earned wins in Game 5 and 6 against Boston in the playoffs, before getting hurt again. Obviously, he needs to stay healthy, but if he does, Woll can win the starting job in Toronto and that could bring significant value for fantasy managers.