Prospect System Ranking – 29th (Previous Rank - 25th)
GM: Brad Treliving Hired: May 2023
COACH: Craig Berube Hired: May 2024
The beat goes on for the Maple Leafs, who once again fell short in the NHL playoffs. Despite having several high-calibre talents anchoring the top half of their lineup, few teams have struggled as much as Toronto to find postseason success. As expected, the combination of consistently making the playoffs but failing to advance has taken its toll on the club’s prospect pool, as they now find themselves dropping toward the league's basement in our McKeen’s prospect rankings.
With five players consuming nearly 63% of their overall cap space, the need for affordable, talented options is greater than ever. On the positive side, the Leafs managed to graduate two players in 2023-24: Matthew Knies and Nick Robertson—the latter of whom may seek a more prominent role elsewhere? Knies, however, stands out as the team’s most promising graduate in years, following a 35-point rookie season. He has a strong chance of securing a top six role, potentially filling the secondary scoring void the team has long sought.
While the depth of the prospect pool is limited, there are still some reasons for optimism for the future. Easton Cowan (35th ranked), their 2023 first-round pick and the team’s lone prospect within McKeen’s top 50, is coming off a stellar season, racking up numerous accolades, including being named to the OHL First All-Star Team, winning the OHL’s Most Outstanding Player, and earning OHL Playoff MVP honours with the most points by any skater (34). He even enjoyed a 42-game point streak midway through the season. While the Leafs will have to wait a few seasons to realize Cowan’s impact at the NHL level, he’s a promising addition to an otherwise underwhelming prospect pool.
Rounding out their remaining three top 200 prospects are 2022 second-rounder Fraser Minten (106th), who’s slated to turn pro this fall, and two defencemen—Topi Niemelä (144th) and recent pick Ben Danford (161st).
In addition to their homegrown talent, the Leafs have also added a few NCAA recruits, most notably Jacob Quillan, who brings a versatile two-way game that adds some much-needed dynamism to the farm system. His development will be intriguing to keep tabs on, as he could serve as a low-key and cost-effective bottom-six option in the not-so-distant future.
With only one pick (second round) in the top four rounds of the 2025 Entry Draft, Toronto’s amateur scouting team will need to work overtime next year to find worthy talent to bolster this free-falling depth chart.
Toronto Maple Leafs Top-15 Prospects
1. Easton Cowan
42 games. That’s the number of games in a row that Easton Cowan registered a point during the stretch run last year, one of the reasons why he was named the Red Tilson Award winner as the OHL’s most outstanding player. He helped the Knights capture an OHL title and emerged as one of the best players in the CHL, one year removed from being a “reach” in the eyes of most Leafs’ fans. He has gone from being an overdraft in the eyes of the media and the fan base, to someone Leafs’ fans are extremely excited about in a matter of a calendar year. With improvements made to his puck skill, playmaking touch, and strength on the puck, Cowan has managed to alter the perception of his NHL projection. He’s still got a solid floor because of his high-end skating ability, two-way effectiveness, and great motor, however with the improvements made to his on-puck play, he’s become a potential top six forward down the line. It would be fair to say that few prospects in the NHL have improved their fortune more than Cowan did last season.
2. Fraser Minten
The former 38th overall pick started last season in Toronto after a terrific training camp, but he was returned to the WHL after only a few games. This was best for his development as it was deemed important that Minten return to the WHL to continue to improve his on puck play and offensive production. The captain of this past year’s Canadian WJC team, Minten likely doesn’t have significant offensive upside at the NHL level. He plays a pretty simple game; get to the net and get pucks in deep. He’s not a dynamic skater. He’s not a dynamic handler. However, he has a clear understanding of how he needs to play in order to be successful. While Minten is not likely to be a top six forward in the future, he projects as a high end third line player who can play the kind of heavy game that has been lacking in the playoffs for the Maple Leafs in recent seasons. For that reason, Toronto fans should be excited about the possibility of Minten taking up a permanent spot in the lineup in the near future.
3. Topi Niemela
After a stagnant development year in Liiga two seasons ago, Toronto couldn’t wait to get Niemela over to North America last season so that they could get him the kind of ice time and responsibility that they wanted for him. The top defensive prospect in the Leafs’ system, Niemela has rewarded this confidence in his abilities with a very strong rookie year with the Marlies. Not only did his offensive game translate seamlessly thanks to his high-end mobility and vision, but he was better defensively than anticipated. He defended small areas well with more intensity than previously shown and he adjusted to the small ice well from a decision-making standpoint. After bringing in three veteran defenders this offseason, Niemela is almost assured to be ticketed for the Marlies again and that’s just fine. Toronto can now afford to be cautious with his development in hopes that he can become a top four defender down the road.
4. Ben Danford
Just like Easton Cowan last year, the Leafs shocked a lot of people when they selected Oshawa defender Ben Danford in the first round this past draft. Danford had a strong second half with the Generals, helping them reach the OHL finals. During that time, he improved his confidence with the puck and overall decision making considerably. A terrific skater, it helped to reshape the perception of Danford’s upside as a possible two-way defender at the pro level. Even if the offence never comes around, Danford is strong enough defensively to be a highly effective NHL defender. He’s competitive. His mobility gives him a nice advantage as a transition defender. He is already an expert shot blocker, a testament to his strong defensive IQ. Danford will return to the OHL this season, to an Oshawa team that has a chance to repeat as Eastern Conference champions. Putting together a full season of strong play will be the focus.
5. Nikita Grebyonkin
Fresh off winning a KHL Championship with Metallurg Magnitogorsk, the Leafs were able to sign the talented winger, bringing him over to North America for this season. This is huge for the Leafs, to get him into the fold after a breakout KHL season at 21. Armed with high end offensive tools, an argument could be made that Grebyonkin possesses the highest upside of any forward in the system. He’s a dynamic transitional attacker because of his speed and handling ability; he routinely takes on defenders one on one and wins. Over the last two seasons in the KHL, he’s managed to fill out his 6-foot-2 frame, and it’s helped him be more consistent off the puck and when fighting through contact against pro sized defenders. This bodes well for his adjustment to the AHL level this year, assuming that he doesn’t break training camp with the Leafs.
6. Dennis Hildeby
The massive Swedish netminders’ first pro season in North America had to be considered a big (no pun intended) success. Hildeby was excellent as the starter for the Marlies, posting a save percentage above .910 and showing terrific consistency for a younger netminder without a ton of pro experience. We quickly forget how meteoric Hildeby’s rise has been. A classic late bloomer, he’s only got a season as an SHL back-up and now a season as an AHL starter under his belt at 23. However, the marked improvement in his athleticism and quickness have helped unlock his potential in recent years and now he looks like a potential NHL netminder. One would assume that Toronto would like to see Hildeby play another full year in the AHL this season, before giving him a full-time look. Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz should split time on the main club, leaving Hildeby as the top call up option.
7. Artur Akhtyamov
Grebyonkin wasn’t the only Russian prospect in the system to experience a breakout year at 22 (turning 23). Akhtyamov, a 6-foot-1 netminder, had quite the season as well. He won the VHL’s top goaltender award, a VHL championship, and played well in the KHL as Ak Bars Kazan’s backup. This prompted Toronto to sign him, bringing him over for the upcoming season. The problem will be finding playing time for all of these players. Matt Murray was brought back as depth and one would think that he and Hildeby will get the bulk of the action with the Marlies. That could leave Akhtyamov in the ECHL. The netminder could take some time adjusting to the pro level in North America anyway. He’s highly athletic and a solid play tracker, but netminders his size can sometimes struggle with the adjustment. Between him and Hildeby, the Leafs have built up some nice pro depth behind Joseph Woll, as they inevitably battle for the future of Toronto’s crease.
8. Ryan Tverberg
Injuries have not been kind to the former UConn Husky as he has started his pro career in Toronto’s system. When he’s been on the ice, Tverberg has played well. His speed, tenacity, and strong two-way approach have transferred well. He’s still very much on track to become a quality bottom six, penalty killing anchor for the Leafs in the future. However, lower body and upper body injuries limited him to 46 games with the Marlies in his first pro season. The focus this season will be on staying healthy, while continuing to be a valued contributor to the Marlies. Toronto’s AHL club should look totally different next year with so much movement on the depth front. That could clear a path for Tverberg to take on a critical AHL role, which would be outstanding for his development.
9. Roni Hirvonen
Speaking of injuries, Hirvonen is lucky to still be playing after a scary eye injury at the beginning of last season. Narrowly avoiding disaster, Hirvonen returned half-way through the year to a depth role on the Marlies. The team’s former second round pick showed flashes of being a quality two-way forward in limited action. Hirvonen is best described as one of those jack-of-all-trades types. He’s not elite in any category, but his well-rounded skill set, and high IQ make him a potential middle six type in the future. Much like Tverberg, Hirvonen stands to earn more ice time with the Marlies this season and that will be positive for his development. There’s a need to add strength to his undersized frame to help him be stronger on pucks and be an even more effective two-way option.
10. Noah Chadwick
Without a doubt, Chadwick was one of the WHL’s breakout players this past season with Lethbridge. He went from being a 6th round long shot to one of the WHL’s top defenders in a matter of a single season. One of the reasons for that has been an uptick in usage. He took over as the top powerplay quarterback and did a very good job running that unit, even if Lethbridge’s powerplay was one of the weaker statistically in the WHL last season. Another reason has been the improvement made to Chadwick’s skating. He’s improved his carrying ability and his confidence with the puck, which in turn made him a standout at both ends in his draft year plus one. The next steps? Chadwick’s skating still needs to improve overall. He can still struggle with his agility and overall footwork, even if he’s a standout rush defender. I’m sure the Leafs would like to see him use his size more consistently too, to be a physical standout in the defensive end. All things considered; his rapid progression has made him a very intriguing prospect in the system moving forward.
11. Alex Steeves
It’s now or never for Steeves in the Maple Leafs’ organization. The 24 (turning 25) year old has continued to improve in the AHL and was one of the Marlies’ best players last year. He’s ready to show that he can be a full time NHL player. He has continued to improve his skating and pace of play, and his versatility as an effective player, on and off the puck, makes him an ideal candidate for a bottom six role in today’s NHL.
12. Nick Abruzzese
It was another good season for the former Harvard captain, his second full pro year. He led the Marlies in assists and continued to improve his strength on the puck, critical for a somewhat undersized forward with his vision and playmaking ability. Abruzzese is a high IQ player, one of, if not the, smartest players in the Leafs’ system. Due to Toronto’s depth at forward, he didn’t get a look last year despite a few cups of coffee in previous seasons. That should not be taken as a slight. He’s still very much in Toronto’s plans moving forward.
13. Nick Moldenhauer
Moldenhauer had a solid freshman year for the Michigan Wolverines last season, playing a critical middle six role. The skilled and competitive forward just needs to keep improving his strength to overcome his lack of size, given the way that he likes to play through traffic. As a sophomore, he’ll get an opportunity to play more and could be in for a breakthrough season.
14. Joe Miller
If you’re only stat watching, Miller’s sophomore year probably looked like a lateral year for his progression. However, Harvard was not a high scoring team last season and Miller actually led them in scoring in his second go-round in the NCAA. Yes, Miller is small, but he’s a highly intelligent player. Will the lack of a true standout athletic or skill-based quality hurt his chances of being a solid pro? It will likely be at least another season before we know.
15. Ty Voit
Expectations were sky high for Voit last season, coming off a breakout performance with OHL Sarnia. Unfortunately, a shoulder injury wiped out pretty much his entire pro debut. That means this season will essentially serve as his introduction to pro hockey. Voit’s not big, but he’s quick and a dynamic playmaker. If he bounces back, he’ll move up this list considerably next time.