Each week, I’ll dig into the stats to find information that can help you make better fantasy hockey decisions. This week, Colorado shakes up its goaltending, Dylan Strome, Marco Rossi, JJ Peterka, and a big injury in St. Louis.
Here is this week’s edition of 20 Fantasy Points:
#1 As much as the Colorado Avalanche might have wanted to give Alexandar Georgiev time to sort out his troubles, he did not give them nearly enough, managing a .810 save percentage in his first five games. Justus Annunen has stepped up, posting a 3-1 record with a .935 save percentage in four starts. The 24-year-old showed some promise last season, putting up a .928 save percentage in 14 games. If he gives the Avalanche a chance to win, Annunen is going to keep getting starts and Georgiev may want to look over his shoulder at Kaapo Kahkonen, who the Avs picked up off waivers a few weeks ago.
#2 After tallying a career-high 67 points (27 G, 40 A) last season, Washington Capitals centre Dylan Strome has started strong this season with nine points (3 G, 6 A) in six games. Strome does not generate a lot of shots and is scoring on 27.3 percent of his shots early in the season, so there is likely regression heading in his direction, but he has turned into a reliable point producer in Washington, and it appears that is going to continue.
#3 The Minnesota Wild have started the season on a hot streak, with a 5-0-2 record through seven games, and centre Marco Rossi looks like he is starting to fulfill his potential. The ninth pick in the 2020 Draft, Rossi finished sixth in Calder Trophy voting last season after scoring 40 points (21 G, 19 A) in 81 games. This season, he has spent most of his time between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello on the Wild’s top line and has seven points (3 G, 4 A) during a six-game point streak. Rossi is also scoring on 23.1 percent of his shots, so that probably won’t continue, but it’s much more important that he continues to produce to hold his spot on that top line.
#4 The St. Louis Blues have lost their playmaking star centre Robert Thomas due to a broken ankle and he will be re-evaluated in six weeks. After scoring a career-high 86 points last season, Thomas has six points (1 G, 5 A) in seven games, but his absence will leave a hole in the Blues lineup. With Thomas out, Brayden Schenn moves into the middle with Brandon Saad and Jake Neighbours, the wingers with whom he has played second and third-most this season. Jordan Kyrou, Thomas’ most common linemate, has joined a line with Pavel Buchnevich and Alexandre Texier.
#5 Sidelined by a concussion early in the season, Buffalo Sabres left winger JJ Peterka has come back to the lineup with authority. He has six points (4 G, 2 A) in six games this season, but he played just 1:39 against New Jersey in the game that he suffered a concussion. He has landed on the Sabres’ top line, with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, a good spot for the promising young forward to fulfill his scoring potential.
#6 Power forward Mason Marchment had a tough time in his first season with Dallas, in 2022-2023, but delivered career highs of 22 goals and 53 points last season. He has picked up where he left off, with eight points (2 G, 6 A) and 18 hits in eight games to start this season. Marchment is getting first unit power play time, contributing three points with the man advantage, and skates with productive vets Matt Duchene and Tyler Seguin at even strength.
#7 Los Angeles Kings winger Alex Laferriere is taking on a bigger role in his second season and has started the year with seven points (4 G, 3 A) and 17 shots on goal in eight games while playing 2:30 more per game compared to the 2023-2024 season. He has moved to play with Warren Foegele and Alex Turcotte at even strength, where he has scored all seven of his points, but Laferriere is also getting first unit power play time which raises his offensive ceiling.
#8 When Aleksander Barkov was injured in the second game of the season, it was natural for the Florida Panthers to move Anton Lundell into the first-line centre role, but they may not have expected him to thrive so thoroughly in the role. In the past seven games, Lundell has averaged more than 20 minutes of ice time per game and produced eight points (5 G, 3 A) with 15 shots on goal. With Barkov reportedly nearing a return, the challenge for the Panthers will be how to maximize Lundell’s contributions even if he doesn’t have the same role and expectations.
#9 Tampa Bay Lightning centre Anthony Cirelli has opened the season with nine points (1 G, 8 A) in seven games, though beware of that production. He had four assists in a win over New Jersey and his on-ice shooting percentage is currently 14.6 percent, notably higher than his career mark of 9.3 percent. He is skating on a line with Brandon Hagel and rookie Connor Geekie but is probably only of value in deeper leagues.
#10 Although Vancouver Canucks right winger Conor Garland is riding some higher percentages early in the season, on his way to six points (3 G, 3 A) in six games, it is useful to note that he is on the Canucks’ top power play unit, and playing nearly four minutes more per game compared to last season. Garland has finished with between 46 and 52 points in three consecutive seasons, but if he is going to play 18-plus minutes per game this season, his output should go higher.
#11 It looks like it is going to be another long season in San Jose, but Sharks centre Mikael Granlund is making the most of his opportunity. It might be the equivalent of empty calories for the winless Sharks, but Granlund is playing a career-high 21:51 per game and has nine points (3 G, 6 A) and 29 shots on goal in eight games. That shot rate of 3.6 per game is very unusual, as Granlund last finished with more than 2.0 shots per game in 2019-2020, and that season finished with 2.06 shots per game. If he is going to keep shooting with this frequency, though, Granlund should be a safer bet to keep putting up points and he has four 60-point seasons to his credit.
#12 Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Shayne Gostisbehere is riding a five-game point streak, during which he has six points (4 G, 2 A). Three of those goals have come via the power play, and 2017-2018 was the last time that Gostisbere finished with more than five power play goals in a season, so he could thrive in something of a specialist’s role with Carolina. He has been playing 18:33 per game this season, which is th3 second-lowest average of his career and yet his 2.29 shots on goal per game is his highest rate since 2018-2019.
#13 He already has a couple of 20-goal seasons to his credit, but Columbus Blue Jackets winger Kirill Marchenko could be poised for bigger things in his third NHL season. Skating on Columbus’ top line alongside Sean Monahan and Cole Sillinger and getting first unit power play time, Marchenko has eight points (3 G, 5 A) while averaging 19 minutes of ice time through six games. With expectations relatively low in Columbus, there are some players who are flying under the radar despite their production and Marchenko is one of them.
#14 It might be too soon to buy low on Buffalo Sabres centre Dylan Cozens, but at least put him on your radar. The 23-year-old has just two assists in eight games, which is far from useful for fantasy managers, but he is in a decent situation, getting first-unit power play time in Buffalo and skating on a line with rookie Jiri Kulich and Jack Quinn. Cozens has 27 shots on goal without a goal, which is the highest total in the league for players still seeking their first goal. Among forwards still seeking first red light of the season, Cozens is followed by Morgan Frost (24), Quinton Byfield (20), Brad Marchand (19), Nick Schmaltz (18) and A.J. Greer (18).
#15 Ottawa Senators centre Josh Norris is healthy to start the season and has delivered six points (3 G, 3 A) in six games. He is skating on a line with quality wingers, Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson, and is on the top power play unit, where he has produced half of his points. He erupted for 35 goals in 66 games during the 2021-2022 season but has battled shoulder injuries since and yet he still had 18 goals in 58 games over the past two seasons, so it’s not like his skill has disappeared. It’s all about whether he can stay healthy.
#16 Winnipeg Jets defenceman Neal Pionk has recorded between 32 and 34 points in four consecutive seasons, but he might be off to a start that is going to propel him past those numbers. He has eight points (1 G, 7 A) in seven games, with three points on the power play even though he is on Winnipeg’s second unit. His 2.57 shots on goal per game would be a career high and is reason to be encouraged for Pionk’s long-term production.
#17 It could be a good time to buy low on Steven Stamkos, who is off to a slow start in Nashville. He has just one goal and zero assists through six games, even though he has put 22 shots on goal. That shot rate (3.67 per game) would be his highest since 2011-2012. He has 0.56 individual expected goals per game which ranks tenth in the league and is an indication that more production really ought to be following. It’s just a matter of how soon it starts to happen for him.
#18 Colorado Avalanche forward Ross Colton apparently suffered an injury against Utah on Thursday night, so it remains to be seen how long it might keep him out of the lineup. He has been thriving, with eight points (7 G, 1 A) and 26 shots on goal in the past seven games. With so many injuries in Colorado, Colton found himself on the top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. If Colton is out, Joel Kiviranta might be next in line to get a look there and he does have four goals in his past three games.
#19 Montreal Canadiens right winger Juraj Slafkovsky will be out for at least a week due to an upper-body injury, a tough break considering how productive he has been. He had six points (1 G, 5 A) in six games before getting hurt, picking up his production from last season, when he finished with 32 points (14 G, 18 A) in the last 35 games. With Slafkovsky out, Kirby Dach is getting a shot on Montreal’s top line, an opportunity to break out from his own slow start, as Dach has just two assists in seven games.
#20 The New York Islanders have lost winger Anthony Duclair for more than a month due to a lower-body injury. That leaves the Islanders in a tough spot, as they are now putting Simon Holmstrom on left wing with Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal on the top line. Holmstrom had 25 points (15 G, 10 A) in 75 games last season, so this is a big opportunity for him, but it might be more than he can handle, which would then leave the Islanders to look elsewhere. Rookie Maxim Tsyplakov is already playing more than 17 minutes per game, so the Isles could use another skilled forward.