During the time period when writing the Yearbook, some basic fundamentals used in some element of analysis don’t ever see the light of day. Summer 2013 was no different, particularly, with scoring in the shortened season requiring extrapolation over 82 games – which isn’t a very good indication of a true production, overlooking a variety of variables affecting game outcomes
There has to be a starting point however and instead of normalizing 2012-13 over 82 games, I took an approach that leaned heavily on ratios rather than hard numbers.
I also wanted to keep the shortened season data separate from the longer term averages to maintain integrity of independent running average directly compared to the short season. This meant using 2012-13 5v5 production rate stats (on a per60 basis) in relative comparison to the player’s 3-year and 5-year averages ending with the season 2011-12 – excluding ’12-13.
The key to this exercise wasn’t to make a definitive determination of the player’s future value, but rather an analytic starting point with a goal of answering the initial question, ‘how did players produce in the shortened season, relative to longer term trends. This was a beginning point, not the end result.
I won’t include a lot of commentary on players considering the amount of detail already prevalent in the McKeen’s Yearbook write-ups, however all those poolies (and writers looking for previews) may want to keep an eye on the players listed based on these preliminary results.
RATIOS
As an example, I will use goals/60. All the results here are based on 5v5 data via hockeyanlaysis.com.
Dividing ’12-13 goals/60 by the 3-year average (’12-13/3yr average) will result in a comparative ratio of the shortened season’s production relative to the player’s 3-year average. There are one of three possible results.
A one (1) indicates the player’s scoring ratio matched the 3-year goals/60 rate. A number greater than one meant the player outperformed his 3-year average. Less than one meant he underperformed.
SHOTS/60
The essential driving factor here is shots on goal per 60 minutes, tweaking the filtering criteria depending on the ratio.
To isolate underperformers, I used the following criteria:
SOG/60 > 1
Goals/60 <1
This returned a list of players that fired pucks at a rate greater than their 3-year average but didn’t score at the same clip than in the past (despite the uptick in shots/60 ratio)
For outperformers:
SOG/60 < 1
Goals/60 >1
The returned players fired less than their 3-year average, yet scored at a clip greater than their 3-year average.
The third filter was to determine consistency – particularly in shooting rates. This required incorporating 5-year average ratios as well, adding another long(er) term ratio filtering down the listings. In the end, 26 players made the final filter, some interesting names, some others negligible in the grand scheme.
Each category list can be quite big, so I’m going to split this into separate posts. This first one focuses on players that underperformed with a goals/60 ratio less than 1 and SOG/60 ration greater than 1.
Underperformed
A quick note here. Players like Matt Calvert has been developing over the 3-year period, so tht in itself must be taken into consideration when looking at the raw numbers. Bubble players like Kaspars Daugavins has an effect here too, with increased ice time instead of small samples comprising the overall 3-year averages. To reiterate, this analysis is a starting point, not the end means.
Across the NHL, 86 players underperformed their goals/60 ratio, a value less than one (with a shooting percentage greater than zero) while firing at a SOG/60 ratio greater than 1.
Of those 86 two NHL teams were unrepresented, Calgary and Toronto. When including players with a zero shooting percentage 149 were ranked, including multiple Flames and only one Leaf player made the list, Mark Fraser.
When prepping for your draft or looking at production comparisons for the shortened season, keep these ratios in mind (look at David Jones!!).
Here's the complete list broken down by forwards and defensemen.
Forwards Relative to 3-yr average |
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| Player Name | Team | Sh% | G/60 | A/60 | 1stA/60 | Pts/60 | SOG/60 |
| KYLE PALMIERI | Anaheim | 0.78 | 0.97 | 2.03 | 1.82 | 1.37 | 1.25 |
| PATRICE BERGERON | Boston | 0.67 | 0.76 | 1.14 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| KASPARS DAUGAVINS | Boston | 0.41 | 0.52 | 1.74 | 0.00 | 0.98 | 1.27 |
| TYLER SEGUIN | Boston | 0.79 | 0.89 | 0.92 | 0.74 | 0.91 | 1.13 |
| JORDAN CARON | Boston | 0.43 | 0.48 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.66 | 1.14 |
| RICH PEVERLEY | Boston | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.61 | 1.00 |
| JORDAN STAAL | Carolina | 0.89 | 0.94 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.83 | 1.06 |
| DRAYSON BOWMAN | Carolina | 0.72 | 0.81 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.73 | 1.13 |
| JEFF SKINNER | Carolina | 0.46 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.74 | 0.57 | 1.24 |
| TIM WALLACE | Carolina | 0.46 | 0.62 | 0.31 | 0.47 | 0.42 | 1.37 |
| MICHAEL FROLIK | Chicago | 0.68 | 0.76 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.01 | 1.12 |
| MICHAL HANDZUS | Chicago | 0.49 | 0.58 | 0.88 | 1.12 | 0.77 | 1.19 |
| PAUL STASTNY | Colorado | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.45 | 0.13 | 0.59 | 1.00 |
| DAVID JONES | Colorado | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.85 | 1.05 | 0.47 | 1.12 |
| MATT CALVERT | Columbus | 0.71 | 0.92 | 0.67 | 1.05 | 0.78 | 1.30 |
| MARIAN GABORIK | Columbus | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.52 | 1.14 |
| CORY EMMERTON | Detroit | 0.85 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 1.29 | 0.90 | 1.08 |
| VALTTERI FILPPULA | Detroit | 0.61 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.77 | 0.66 | 1.14 |
| JORDAN EBERLE | Edmonton | 0.81 | 0.97 | 0.85 | 1.01 | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| ALES HEMSKY | Edmonton | 0.68 | 0.75 | 0.74 | 0.64 | 0.75 | 1.11 |
| TOMAS FLEISCHMANN | Florida | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.97 | 0.86 | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| MARCEL GOC | Florida | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.68 | 1.13 | 0.65 | 1.04 |
| PETER MUELLER | Florida | 0.52 | 0.73 | 0.58 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 1.41 |
| BRAD RICHARDSON | Los Angeles | 0.64 | 0.70 | 2.48 | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.09 |
| DUSTIN PENNER | Los Angeles | 0.30 | 0.36 | 1.75 | 1.57 | 1.10 | 1.22 |
| DWIGHT KING | Los Angeles | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 1.02 |
| PIERRE-MARC BOUCHARD | Minnesota | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.96 | 1.07 | 0.94 | 1.04 |
| CAL CLUTTERBUCK | Minnesota | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.91 | 1.02 | 0.79 | 1.01 |
| ZACH PARISE | Minnesota | 0.77 | 0.79 | 0.79 | 1.02 | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| MATT HALISCHUK | Nashville | 0.73 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 1.50 | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| PAUL GAUSTAD | Nashville | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.58 | 0.44 | 0.49 | 1.06 |
| DAVID CLARKSON | New Jersey | 0.79 | 0.92 | 1.04 | 0.73 | 0.97 | 1.16 |
| PATRIK ELIAS | New Jersey | 0.80 | 0.89 | 0.70 | 0.77 | 0.77 | 1.11 |
| ADAM HENRIQUE | New Jersey | 0.90 | 0.98 | 0.28 | 0.59 | 0.50 | 1.08 |
| MATT MOULSON | NY Islanders | 0.48 | 0.55 | 2.24 | 3.21 | 1.25 | 1.15 |
| MATT MARTIN | NY Islanders | 0.88 | 0.97 | 1.09 | 1.86 | 1.03 | 1.11 |
| FRANS NIELSEN | NY Islanders | 0.47 | 0.50 | 1.24 | 1.02 | 0.99 | 1.07 |
| KEITH AUCOIN | NY Islanders | 0.57 | 0.91 | 0.49 | 0.73 | 0.62 | 1.60 |
| RYANE CLOWE | NY Rangers | 0.30 | 0.33 | 1.26 | 1.16 | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| CARL HAGELIN | NY Rangers | 0.71 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 1.10 | 0.88 | 1.28 |
| MILAN MICHALEK | Ottawa | 0.89 | 0.91 | 1.30 | 0.43 | 1.10 | 1.03 |
| ZACK SMITH | Ottawa | 0.58 | 0.64 | 1.12 | 1.28 | 0.89 | 1.10 |
| ERIK CONDRA | Ottawa | 0.70 | 0.72 | 0.85 | 0.37 | 0.80 | 1.04 |
| CHRIS NEIL | Ottawa | 0.62 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 1.14 |
| CLAUDE GIROUX | Philadelphia | 0.66 | 0.70 | 1.01 | 1.17 | 0.90 | 1.06 |
| MIKKEL BOEDKER | Phoenix | 0.45 | 0.54 | 1.37 | 0.61 | 1.01 | 1.19 |
| LAURI KORPIKOSKI | Phoenix | 0.66 | 0.92 | 0.59 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 1.39 |
| JAROME IGINLA | Pittsburgh | 0.76 | 0.76 | 1.02 | 1.21 | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| JAMES SHEPPARD | San Jose | 0.74 | 0.94 | 1.88 | 0.94 | 1.52 | 1.27 |
| RAFFI TORRES | San Jose | 0.89 | 0.93 | 1.43 | 1.63 | 1.19 | 1.04 |
| T.J. GALIARDI | San Jose | 0.70 | 0.81 | 1.34 | 1.87 | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| JOE THORNTON | San Jose | 0.58 | 0.65 | 0.82 | 0.91 | 0.78 | 1.12 |
| PATRICK MARLEAU | San Jose | 0.87 | 0.95 | 0.56 | 0.18 | 0.75 | 1.10 |
| ANDREW DESJARDINS | San Jose | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.32 | 1.15 |
| CHRIS PORTER | St. Louis | 0.72 | 0.88 | 1.75 | 2.30 | 1.32 | 1.21 |
| ADAM CRACKNELL | St. Louis | 0.57 | 0.65 | 1.29 | 0.86 | 0.96 | 1.13 |
| JADEN SCHWARTZ | St. Louis | 0.73 | 0.99 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| ALEX BURROWS | Vancouver | 0.84 | 0.96 | 0.82 | 1.11 | 0.89 | 1.14 |
| JAY BEAGLE | Washington | 0.43 | 0.47 | 3.32 | 4.96 | 1.32 | 1.09 |
| MATHIEU PERREAULT | Washington | 0.45 | 0.54 | 1.47 | 1.99 | 0.98 | 1.21 |
| WOJTEK WOLSKI | Washington | 0.61 | 0.67 | 0.49 | 0.67 | 0.55 | 1.11 |
| NIK ANTROPOV | Winnipeg | 0.50 | 0.59 | 1.00 | 1.23 | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| ERIC TANGRADI | Winnipeg | 0.83 | 0.87 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.52 | 1.04 |
Defensemen Relative to 3-yr average |
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| Player Name | Team | Sh% | G/60 | A/60 | 1stA/60 | Pts/60 | SOG/60 |
| ADAM MCQUAID | Boston | 0.79 | 0.79 | 0.56 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 1.01 |
| CHRISTIAN EHRHOFF | Buffalo | 0.77 | 0.79 | 1.19 | 1.93 | 1.06 | 1.04 |
| JAMIE MCBAIN | Carolina | 0.50 | 0.51 | 1.06 | 1.11 | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| JAY HARRISON | Carolina | 0.58 | 0.60 | 1.10 | 1.32 | 0.91 | 1.03 |
| MARC-ANDRE BERGERON | Carolina | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.73 | 1.29 |
| JAN HEJDA | Colorado | 0.40 | 0.49 | 1.10 | 1.47 | 0.93 | 1.23 |
| JACK JOHNSON | Columbus | 0.76 | 0.79 | 1.26 | 1.38 | 1.13 | 1.05 |
| ALEX GOLIGOSKI | Dallas | 0.70 | 0.73 | 1.51 | 1.04 | 1.24 | 1.04 |
| LADISLAV SMID | Edmonton | 0.64 | 0.71 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.11 |
| DREW DOUGHTY | Los Angeles | 0.35 | 0.48 | 0.51 | 0.57 | 0.49 | 1.36 |
| FRANCIS BOUILLON | Montreal | 0.68 | 0.86 | 1.83 | 2.84 | 1.59 | 1.25 |
| JONATHON BLUM | Nashville | 0.31 | 0.38 | 1.41 | 1.13 | 1.01 | 1.21 |
| ROMAN JOSI | Nashville | 0.37 | 0.45 | 1.05 | 1.51 | 0.81 | 1.21 |
| ANDY GREENE | New Jersey | 0.80 | 0.91 | 0.65 | 0.23 | 0.68 | 1.15 |
| LUBOMIR VISNOVSKY | NY Islanders | 0.41 | 0.53 | 0.44 | 0.34 | 0.48 | 1.32 |
| MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO | NY Rangers | 0.18 | 0.28 | 1.59 | 2.93 | 1.11 | 1.53 |
| DAN GIRARDI | NY Rangers | 0.44 | 0.56 | 1.08 | 0.63 | 0.97 | 1.27 |
| SERGEI GONCHAR | Ottawa | 0.48 | 0.54 | 1.66 | 1.29 | 1.41 | 1.14 |
| ERIK KARLSSON | Ottawa | 0.57 | 0.88 | 1.30 | 1.63 | 1.15 | 1.54 |
| BRUNO GERVAIS | Philadelphia | 0.52 | 0.61 | 1.12 | 0.47 | 0.98 | 1.18 |
| LUKE SCHENN | Philadelphia | 0.34 | 0.41 | 0.73 | 0.43 | 0.66 | 1.20 |
| OLIVER EKMAN-LARSSON | Phoenix | 0.64 | 0.68 | 1.52 | 1.56 | 1.21 | 1.06 |
| ERIC BREWER | Tampa Bay | 0.76 | 0.78 | 1.55 | 1.98 | 1.20 | 1.04 |